A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
